Freshwater Footprint Gabriola Case Study Update

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Islands Trust Briefing Page 1 
 
 
 
 
BRIEFING 
 
 
To: Gabriola Local Trust Committee  For the Meeting of: February 19, 2026 
     
From: William Shulba, P.Geo 
Senior Freshwater Specialist 
 Date Prepared: February 12, 2026 
     
SUBJECT:
  
Freshwater Footprint Gabriola Case Study Update  
 
 
PURPOSE 
The purpose of this briefing is to present the consultant report of the Freshwater Footprint Gabriola Case 
Study. This report summarizes the project’s background, analyzes the key outcomes including the 
Freshwater Hazard Map, and outlines the next steps for integrating this science into the ongoing Official 
Community Plan (OCP) review and upcoming community engagement. 
 
BACKGROUND   
 
The Freshwater Footprint Project represents the operational synthesis of the Islands Trust Freshwater 
Sustainability Strategy (FWSS). It functions as a  "capstone" initiative, integrating years of foundational 
science into a unified decision-support tool for land-use planning. 
The methodology builds upon a cascading scientific evidence chain established by FWSS programs and 
projects. The Aquifer Conceptualization project defined a hydrogeological framework or "container" of 
the Islands Trust Area, while the Groundwater Recharge Potential Mapping quantified the potential for 
precipitation entering those systems. These foundational layers were essential for establishing the inputs 
required for water balance modeling. 
The  Freshwater  Footprint project refines the  approach  of the  Southern  Gulf  Islands  Groundwater 
Availability  Assessments,  engaging the formal  external professional  review of  that  earlier work  and 
advances specific recommendations regarding water demand assumptions and uncertainty. This ensures 
that the Gabriola pilot benefits from the lessons learned in previous regional assessments, resulting in a 
more  rigorous  and  defensible framework for defining carrying  capacity. In  addition, social  science 
methods were engaged in the work that included survey analysis, public workshops, and interviews. 
 
ANALYSIS  
The  primary  deliverable of this  project  is  a  documented Freshwater Footprint methodology  and its 
application to Gabriola Island. This project integrates water quantity (groundwater availability), water 
quality (chloride and TDS trends), and hazard indicators (seawater intrusion risk) into a holistic metric of 
freshwater sustainability. The defining output of this analysis is the Freshwater Footprint Hazard Map. 
The map identifies regions of freshwater hazard identifying areas with capacity for potential growth versus 
those facing cumulative resource limits. These outcomes provide the necessary evidence base for the 
current OCP and Land Use Bylaw (LUB) update. Planning staff will consider these hazard classifications 
when identifying criteria for evaluating changes to use and density. Hazard classifications will help validate 
proposed policy changes, ensuring that future development aligns with the 

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