How is Climate Changing in the Gulf Islands? Webinar

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Slide 1 
 
How is climate 
changing in the 
Gulf Islands?
Presentation to the Islands Trust
October 27, 2020
Ruth Waldick
 
 
 
  

Slide 2 
 
Our climate is warming....
 
 
The phenomenon of Global Warming and Climate Change are often discussed in terms of the degree to 
which the temperature is expected to increase (2 degrees C or 4 degrees C). These numbers give the 
impression that Canada will be increasingly warmer over time.  But these numbers are averages, and 
averages capturing change over large areas. They have been used to communicate relative change 
(often referring to global average change), but fail to capture the nuances, that weather variability will 
increase through all seasons. And that not all areas will be equally affected.   
 
Where we are in the Coast Salish region, climate projections suggest we will experience less severe 
changes than many other parts of North America.  This area has a unique microclimate; weather 
conditions are more moderate. During the last glaciation, the milder conditions in this area allowed it to 
serve as a refuge to many species. As the conditions warmed, these species recolonized surrounding 
areas. In the future under global warming, this region is expected to once again serve as an important 
climate refugia. 
 
Notes: 
• although many of our native species of plants, trees and wildlife are adapted to drought and wet 
conditions, some are doing better than others... 
 
 
  

Slide 3 
 
We are already living with Climate 
Change....
Winters warmer 
less cold, more rain accumulation
Summers drier 
more water demand, higher fire risk, water shortages
Changes in timing of seasons 
More weather extremes 
storms in all seasons (wind, snow and freezing rain)
Seasonal Temperature Change (⁰C) 1948-2016
 
 
An important point to make about climate change and global warming, is that we have and are already 
living with it. The map inset here shows how the average temperature increase, by season, across 
Canada between 1948 and 2016. Although Vancouver Island and the Salish Sea are not visible on this 
map, we experienced similar trends through this period. However, our average (annual) warming during 
this time was moderate - ~1.3 degrees Celsius. 
 
We already have a very good sense of how climate change will affect us, as we are experiencing these 
effects already: 
• warming winters (less absolute low temperatures, but still cold bouts); more rainfall in the winter 
(less in summer), much of which is as single or short periods of intensely heavy rain (~25% comes as 
such events) 
• drier summers – increased water demand and stress on plants, more fire season and higher fire risk 
(four of worst fire seasons in BC records occurred between 2014 - 2019). The frequency of drought 
and extreme fire risk years in increasing. 
• the timing of seasons is becoming more unpredictable, and variable – as a result of large airshed 
changes which alter the pattern of El Nino and La Nina 
• weather extremes, whic

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